How It Works
Precizion rewards precision, not just correctness. Here's how the system works end to end.
Continuous Outcomes
Traditional prediction markets are binary — you pick yes or no, and you either win or lose everything. Precizion is different.
You predict a single numeric value — like the price of Bitcoin at a future date, or the total volume of a token on a given day. The closer your prediction is to the actual outcome, the larger your share of the reward pool.
This means there are no “losers” in the traditional sense. Everyone who participates receives a share of the pool, weighted by their accuracy.
Accuracy-Weighted Scoring
Rewards are calculated using an inverse-distance decay function. The math is straightforward:
The maxError parameter defines the boundary — predictions beyond this distance from the actual value receive zero accuracy (and therefore zero reward).
Pool Distribution
The entire reward pool is distributed among all participants. A small platform fee (2%) is deducted from the total pool before distribution.
After the platform fee, the reward pool is split proportionally based on each participant's weighted accuracy score. There is no “house edge” beyond the 2% fee — the pool is fully distributed to participants.
Market Lifecycle
From creation to reward claim — every market follows this flow.
Market Created
Anyone can create a market with a target metric, end time, and min/max bet limits.
Betting Period
Participants submit numeric predictions with NIGHT token stakes. The pool grows with each bet.
Market Closes
No more bets accepted after the end time. The pool is finalized.
Resolution
The actual outcome is determined (e.g., BTC price from an oracle). The final value is recorded on-chain.
Reward Distribution
Rewards are computed off-chain, organized into a Merkle tree, and the root is submitted on-chain.
Claim
Participants claim their share by presenting a Merkle proof with a ZK proof — no private data is revealed.
Worked Example
Market resolves to 850. Pool is 400 tokens. Four participants bet 100 tokens each:
Max error = 50% of 850 = 425. All predictions fall within range. 100% of pool distributed (after 2% fee).